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Probabilities through Poker, Werewolf and Deal or No Deal , Melinda Seckington


Cards, explaining how the standard 52 deck works. Trying the audience on probabilities. (Chance on getting the queen). Showing examples on Texas Hold them and explaining the rules.
When you have lots of cards from the suite on the table, the chance to get one of those cards, is smaller then 1 in 4. It’s about 20%, without taking into account what other players have (you just assume the cards are in the deck).

There a quite a few things to take into account when calculating probabilities at the Poker.

Creative Commons License photo credit: Gandalfar


You have X number of players, of these most are villagers, a few are a werewolf’s, and the villagers have to kill all the werewolf’s. The villagers have to figure out who the werewolf’s are and kill them.

Example 6 people, in a game where you know there were 3 werewolf’s in the game (of 20 of all). The game is over, if there is the same amount of villagers as werewolf’s. So the question is now, if is one or two werewolf’s.

The important thing is when you are at a threshold when you have to realize that if the villagers don’t kill a werewolf, the werewolves are going to win. It’s really important that at these points you don’t just kill a person.

The discussion continues about if the first few rounds seer reveals themselves it might benefit the villagers more than a werewolf. It’s also a good tactic for a seer to tell the person next to you in-between the game that you are a seer.

Deal or no Deal

22 boxes, the person that is playing has one box and that person then proceeds to open the boxes.

So what is the best strategy? Different ideas, but mostly too fast explained to make notes :/

General consensus is that you want to take at least something home. The idea is that 8k pounds is a good amount to take home.